On January 7, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the AK Party’s mayoral candidates in 26 provinces, including Istanbul.

Murat Kurum’s nomination suggests that the ruling party will focus on housing construction, urban renewal, earthquake preparedness, and public projects during the campaign. It is also worth noting that Erdogan spoke at the event about “serving the city,” “true municipal administration,” “winning local elections to achieve the goals of the Turkish Century,” and “ideological imposition of the opposition and the politics of fear.” All of these points emphasized the AK Party’s intention to highlight what could shed light on the shortcomings of mayors affiliated with the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

Indeed, Erdoğan harshly criticized CHP Chairman Özgur Özel without mentioning Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, citing his role as de facto co-chair of the main opposition party:

“Thanks to our victories, we will also release Mr. Ozgur. No one can engage in politics with debts hanging over their heads. If Mr. Özgür wants to get a political license, he should get rid of his guardians and masters, not attack us.”

The president also used the occasion to highlight Özell’s ongoing efforts to persuade the Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the People’s Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), to cooperate:

“He seems to think that he can make people forget the conditions under which he was allowed to become the head of the CHP and what keeps him making concessions to the separatists at every turn.”.

It is no secret that any opposition figure targeted by President Erdogan tends to become more popular at the grassroots level. As a reminder, Imaoglu has signaled his intention to oppose Erdogan, not the People’s Alliance. Therefore, it is not expected that the Turkish president will speak directly about opposition mayoral candidates.

Likewise, Kurum’s initial statements focused exclusively on Istanbul, indicating that the ruling party sees a weakness in Imaoglu’s commitment to intra-party and national politics.

Another major theme of the campaign will be striking a balance between national and local politics. The ruling party and the opposition will inevitably discuss national issues such as ideology and identity. What really matters is whether this combination will be a synthesis that can win over voters in the metropolitan areas.

Opposition strategy

The main opposition party fired the first salvo by opening a discussion about the future of the political regime with reference to the postponement of the Super Bowl final. In this way, they hope to attract the secular right-wing voters of the Good Party (IP) under the guise of cooperation with the grassroots. However, this discourse does not put pressure on the People’s Alliance. In any case, it could give the ruling party some rhetorical ammunition.

In particular, inciting political polarization through talk of “regime change” would lead the CHP to alienate supporters of right-wing opposition parties. On the contrary, the ruling party could easily emphasize its commitment to the republic and its values. Indeed, Erdoğan immediately stopped the CHP chairman’s attack and used the discourse of “regime change” to carve out a new discursive space:

“They are again using our republic and its founder Gazi Mustafa Kemal as the most exploitable materials, this nation has no problem with the republic or Gazi Mustafa Kemal”.

On January 7, the president went even further, warning that foreign government pawns had resurfaced ahead of the municipal elections to cloud people’s judgment:

“They make no effort to come out of their echo chambers to understand the nation. They have been prisoners of artificial fears for years. Today, they are wallowing in their ignorance, hatred, and confusion – to the point where they don’t even know the shahada. This is a nation that has embedded the Shahada in its national anthem.”.

Is it useful for the CHP, which is forced to cooperate with the ECJ, to talk about regime change? Absolutely not. On the contrary, criticizing the AK Party with reference to the basic principles of the republic seriously undermines the CHP’s constant search for partners. As a reminder, Selahattin Demirtas, the former chairman of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), made statements during the trials that attacked Ataturk for years. Fueling polarization in an attempt to repeat what happened in 2019 could cost the CHP dearly. The bottom line is that accusations of being “part of the dirty game against Turkey” would be much more effective than criticisms like “regime change.”